Molybdenum heads for 6th straight deficit, record prices: BMO

As no new projects exist to lift output in the short term, the trend should continue in 2027, BMO says.

Molybdenum is on course for a sixth consecutive year of supply deficit in 2027, setting the stage for record prices as strong demand meets a limited pipeline of new production, BMO Capital Markets says in a new report.

Global molybdenum demand climbed 8.5% to 358.2 million lb.

in this year’s first half even as supply slipped 0.6% to 335.6 million lb., leaving a 22.6-million-lb.

shortfall, according to data from the International Molybdenum Association cited by BMO.

Prices for the metal have soared about 43% to $41.97 (C$59.60) per lb.

That makes molybdenum a “star performer,” BMO mining analysts George Heppel, Raj Ray and Helen Amos wrote in a report published Thursday.

As no new projects exist to lift output in the short term, the trend should continue in 2027, BMO says.

Readily available inventories have been substantially depleted, leaving the market with limited buffers against further deficits, the bank says.

“With molybdenum demand growth looking strong and no major new sources of supply on the horizon, we believe that it is reasonable to expect the deficit to persist into 2027,” Heppel and his colleagues wrote.

“We now expect molybdenum to hit record highs in the coming year, something which is likely underappreciated by the metal market and wider investment community.” Molybdenum, a silvery-white element that’s used to strengthen steel and improve heat and corrosion resistance, is critical to sectors such as aerospace, energy and defence.

China, the dominant global supplier, introduced export restrictions on the metal in February 2025 after U.S.

President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on Chinese goods.

Molybdenum is on course for a sixth consecutive year of supply deficit in 2027, setting the stage for record prices as strong demand meets a limited pipeline of new production, BMO Capital Markets says in a new report.

Global molybdenum demand climbed 8.5% to 358.2 million lb.

in this year’s first half even as supply slipped 0.6% to 335.6 million lb., leaving a 22.6-million-lb.

shortfall, according to data from the International Molybdenum Association cited by BMO.

Prices for the metal have soared about 43% to $41.97 (C$59.60) per lb.

That makes molybdenum a “star performer,” BMO mining analysts George Heppel, Raj Ray and Helen Amos wrote in a report published Thursday.

As no new projects exist to lift output in the short term, the trend should continue in 2027, BMO says.