GE Vernova Stock Is Up More Than 50% Since the End of 2025. Here’s What Its October 28 Report Needs to Show

Target Price (Mid): ~$3,720Street Target: ~$1,225Potential Total Return: ~270%Annualized IRR: ~36% / yearWhat Happened?GE Vernova (GEV) has beaten Wall Street’s revenue estimate in each of the last ...

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Here’s What Its October 28 Report Needs to Show Wiltone Asuncion Sat, October 10, 2026 at 9:14 AM PDT 4 min read GEV +0.73% GE Vernova Stock Is Up More Than 50% Since the End of 2025.

Here's What Its October 28 Report Needs to Show ©@a-arrow via Canva, @KCKATE from Jookiko via Canva Key Stats for GE Vernova Stock Current Price: $1,004.73 GE Vernova (GEV) has beaten Wall Street's revenue estimate in each of the last five quarters and missed its EBIT estimate in all five, according to TIKR data.

Shares closed at $1,004.73 on October 9, up 53.7% in 2026.

Third-quarter results arrive on October 28, according to GE Vernova's investor relations materials, and consensus has EBIT nearly doubling from Q2.

From Q2 2025 through Q2 2026, EBIT as TIKR reports it fell short of the average estimate by 14% to 64%.

EBITDA was a different story: across the five quarters combined, it landed within about $3 million of estimates.

The whole shortfall sits between EBITDA and EBIT, where analyst estimates and reported figures may not treat every charge the same way.

EBITDA minus EBIT grew from $392 million in Q2 2025 to $597 million in Q2 2026.

Over the same period, depreciation and amortization rose from $202 million to $418 million, according to the second-quarter press release, an increase roughly the size of the widening.

The rise coincides with the Prolec GE acquisition in February.

Revenue rose 21.87% to $11.10 billion (12% organically), ahead of the roughly $10.8 billion estimate.

On July 22, GE Vernova raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $45.5 billion to $46.5 billion and its free cash flow guidance to $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion, from $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion.

It held its adjusted EBITDA margin guidance at 12% to 14%.

The average EBITDA estimate of around $1.68 billion and the average EBIT estimate of around $1.27 billion sit about $410 million apart.

At Morgan Stanley's Laguna conference on September 16, CEO and President Scott Strazik pointed to a figure GE Vernova plans to show at its January earnings call: the change in margin in its equipment backlog.

For Power, "the change in margin in backlog in '25 was low double digits," and he expects the 2026 change to be larger.

He called it "a very important page because that really tells you the equipment margins for '29 and '30 largely." He also said growth in customer deposits has trailed the margin booked into backlog: "the cash is less than the incremental profit that we're booking." That compares deposits with backlog margin, not with reported earnings, and it is management's characterization.

He also flagged one soft spot ahead of time.

Data center orders made up almost 40% of Electrification orders in the first half, and he expects that share to be "probably more like 20%" in Q3 and Q4, with backlog still growing.

An India HVDC award worth almost $1.5 billion is slated to book as a fourth-quarter order.

The mid case is used because its December 31, 2030, horizon covers the 2029 and 2030 deliveries that Strazik says this year's backlog margins describe.

From $1,004.73, it reaches around $3,720, about three times the Street mean target of around $1,225.

The case needs reported earnings, not just EBITDA, to compound.

That makes the size of the EBITDA-to-EBIT gap a live variable.