Copper, nickel prices could double by 2035: report

The metals, critical for the energy transition, will not be able to meet the demand of the next decade, according to Coface.

Copper and nickel prices could double over the next decade, driven by the demand in construction, energy transition and electrification, a new report by global financial services firm Coface suggests.

Aluminum, copper and nickel could face supply deficits averaging around 10% of demand by 2035 as miners struggle to bring enough new production online.

Coface’s industrial metals report is based on an analysis of production, consumption and price data from the London Metal Exchange, U.S.

“US tariffs are part of a much larger shift in how metals are traded,” said Marcos Carias, North America economist at Coface.

“Governments have been restricting metals trade for years, and the US measures add to that pressure at a time when supply is already falling behind demand.” The imbalance could result in a prolonged bull market for industrial metals as clean-energy technologies, data centres, electric vehicles, battery storage and grid expansion consume more material while miners struggle to bring new supply online.

Unlike short-lived commodity cycles, Coface argues the pressure reflects structural constraints that higher prices alone may not quickly resolve.

Until 2035, supply is expected to increase by 1% for copper, 1.5% for nickel, and only 0.4% per year for aluminum.

Demand, by comparison, is expected to grow about 1.8% annually for all three metals if consumption follows the average pace of the past decade.

Under a net-zero emissions scenario, growth accelerates to around 2.2% for aluminum and copper and 4.5% for nickel.

Copper and nickel prices could double over the next decade, driven by the demand in construction, energy transition and electrification, a new report by global financial services firm Coface suggests.

Aluminum, copper and nickel could face supply deficits averaging around 10% of demand by 2035 as miners struggle to bring enough new production online.

Coface’s industrial metals report is based on an analysis of production, consumption and price data from the London Metal Exchange, U.S.

“US tariffs are part of a much larger shift in how metals are traded,” said Marcos Carias, North America economist at Coface.