Is It Too Late To Consider Saipem After New Contracts And Turnaround Rebound?

If you are wondering whether Saipem is still a bargain after its turnaround story, or if most of the upside is already priced in, you are not alone.

That is exactly what this breakdown is here to ...

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Simply Wall St December 23, 2025 5 min read SAPMF 0.00% SAPMY 0.00% If you are wondering whether Saipem is still a bargain after its turnaround story, or if most of the upside is already priced in, you are not alone.

That is exactly what this breakdown is here to unpack.

The share price has edged up 4.9% over the last week and 7.4% over the past month.

It is still down 8.8% year to date and only 5.8% higher over the last year, which looks modest next to its 131.2% three year rebound.

Recent headlines have focused on Saipem securing new engineering and construction contracts in key energy regions and continuing to reposition itself toward more capital disciplined, higher margin projects.

This has helped rebuild investor confidence after a volatile few years.

At the same time, the broader conversation around energy transition infrastructure and offshore development keeps Saipem on the radar of investors looking for cyclical exposure with structural tailwinds.

Right now, Saipem scores a solid 5/6 on our valuation checks, suggesting it screens as undervalued on most measures.

Next, we will walk through those methods one by one before finishing with a more intuitive way to think about what the market is really pricing into the stock.

Find out why Saipem's 5.8% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and discounting those cash flows back to today in €.

For Saipem, the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model starts from last twelve month free cash flow of about €843 million and uses analyst forecasts for the next few years, then extrapolates further growth.

By 2029, free cash flow is projected to reach roughly €1.05 billion, with additional gradual increases assumed through 2035 as the business matures.

When all these future cash flows are discounted back and summed, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of about €7.53 per share.

Compared with the current market price, this suggests Saipem may be trading at a significant discount to its estimated fair value, indicating that the market may still be pricing in a high degree of caution after the turnaround.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Saipem is undervalued by 67.7%.

Track this in your watchlist or portfolio , or discover 908 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows .

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Saipem.

For a company that has returned to consistent profitability, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a practical way to judge value because it directly compares what investors pay today with the profits the business is generating.

What counts as a fair PE depends on how fast earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are.

Higher growth and lower perceived risk usually justify a higher PE, while slower growth or higher risk should lead to a discount.